Sports are live event markets with constantly changing state.
StatMind studies sports markets as complex event systems where price changes reflect game state, participant behavior, information flow, and uncertainty. Our research focuses on how probabilities evolve before and during events, and how market-implied prices compare to independent estimates under changing conditions.
01
Event state
The observable conditions that shape how uncertainty evolves as an event unfolds.
02
Market state
The pricing, liquidity, movement, and timing conditions surrounding the event.
03
Model state
The uncertainty, calibration, confidence, and stability of independent estimates.
04
Risk state
The exposure, liquidity, sizing, and drawdown considerations that determine whether research is actionable.