01
Prediction is only one part of trading
A forecast is the beginning of a trade, not the end of one. Timing, sizing, and execution decide whether a correct view ever becomes a profitable position.
02
Calibration matters
We would rather be honestly uncertain than confidently wrong. Probabilities are only useful if they mean what they say when we size against them.
03
The market is a benchmark and a signal
The prevailing price is the strongest baseline we have. We measure ourselves against it and learn from it, rather than assuming we know better by default.
04
Risk is part of the research process
Sizing, liquidity, and drawdown are studied alongside the signal from the first day, not bolted on once a strategy is already live.
05
Scale only where evidence supports it
Capital follows demonstrated, out-of-sample edge. We would rather trade small and be sure than trade large and hope.